Bitcoin Price Hints at Post-2020 Halving
The price of Bitcoin may hit six figures by 2020 when the next block reward halving takes place if the protocol maintains its exponential trend as show in history data. Its growth pattern indicates that despite both previous halvings came about after long bear periods and there were rising vocal Bitcoin skeptics at the time, the average price appreciation rose exponentially as the incoming supply halved while demand stayed the same.
Most of the newly-mined Bitcoin are sold on exchanges meaning they are not a part of the coins held by users in their storage facilities. With demand staying the same, there will be a decrease in the ask requests on exchanges leading to people paying more for its less supply. The real impact of the halving could be seen some months afterward when a strong bull run combines with the less sales of Bitcoin by miners.
From investment guru, Tim Draper, to the co-founder of BTCC exchange, Bobby Lee, price predictions have started rolling out ahead of the halving slated to happen in about 635 days. Lee predicts that after the next halving, with 900 Bitcoin mined per day, hashpower will continue to grow, leading to a price of $60,000. When that happens, Lee adds, the market will reach a total circulation value of $1 tln which will lead “to more price stability, higher global liquidity, and even faster adoption worldwide.”
After next #BlockRewardHalving in Spring of 2020, new #Bitcoin output will drop again, to just 900 BTC/day.
I predict #HashPower will continue to grow, with ever higher amounts of investment in mining (electricity costs).
If that amount reaches $54m/day, we‘ll have $BTC at $60k.
— Bobby Lee (@bobbyclee) August 25, 2018
Also, at a recent outdoor event, Draper predicted that one Bitcoin would be priced at about $250,000 by 2022.
Favourable contributing factors
Now that the scaling issues and related fear of forks have been put behind, several developments are popping up that would seem beneficial ahead of the 2020 halving. More regulators are now taking a position that is not totally aggressive against Bitcoin and now seems the best time for the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve an ETF.
On the corporate scene, the launch of Goldman Sachs’ custody service for crypto funds will increase demand for Bitcoin. The launch of the Bakkt platform – hopefully in November – in collaboration with ICE, Starbucks and Microsoft will boost interest, usefulness and demand. The Lightning Network spread, which is expected to make Bitcoin transactions faster, is getting more decentralized by the day.
While the current use of Bitcoin protocol is still small compared to what it could be, it may change with time. In the meantime, watching the day-to-day price fluctuations won’t help.